Croydon Town Centre

Garden City, Nairobi

Westfield London

Westfield Milan

Olympic Crowd Management

Paddington Area Transport Study

London 2020/2030

The Street, Stratford City

Silvertown

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Croydon Partnership

iCube has worked extensively on the redevelopment of Croydon Town Centre on behalf of Westfield and Hammerson - the joint owners of the existing Whitgift and Centrale centres.

The intial phases of work focuses on collating a range of data sources to develop a forecast of existing footfall in the centre and to assess the potential uplift resulting from the development proposals. The analyses examined arrival patterns in the town centre by mode to develop a stronger spatial picture of activity and as a means to benchmark estimates.

Later phases increasingly concentrated on forecasting the local movement patterns generated by the strategic growth estimates and the scheme designs. This work informed decisions on entrance location and visibility, sizing and vertical circulation systems.

The most recent work has considered how the centre design might influence the use of the various levels of the centre and the options for developing a balanced profile of activity.

Aspire

Garden City is a mixed use development close to the heart of Nairobi which includes a high end mall comprising 120 stores. iCube was employed to forecast the pedestrian demands using the centre and how this footfall would utilise the various entrances and malls.

As the centre would be heavily reliant on car-borne access and a number of car parks, it was critical to the analysis to develop a picture of the utilisation of the car parks to support the footfall predictions approaching the centre by facade. To this end a car park model was developed to stimulate and allocate vehicles to car parks.

The facade footfall estimates were enhanced by consideration of a visibility analysis internal to the mall (shown in the graphic) which informed how footfall would be likely to distribute across the levels and individual malls.

Westfield

Westfield is proposing to extend Westfield London to the north by adding a new north-south mall and a major new anchor of John Lewis close to White City. The practice has extensively supported the process by developing strategic and local forecasts of movement and footfall for the various scheme proposals.

Perhaps the most critical aspect was developing a robust picture of how the shift in the centre of gravity of the scheme would influence arrival patterns - generally and by mode and station - between the north and south which would enable the anchor tenants to commit to the scheme. iCube analysed existing customer data and built a spreadsheet model of route choice to forecast the reallocation of customers due to the scheme proposals.

Liaison with major retailers involved answering specific queries on historic and predicted movement patterns including, as shown, the change in the centre's catchment area over time since opening.

In addition, iCube has provided local footfall estimates for a range of design proposals within the Northern Extension as the scheme proposals have been refined internally and in terms of its external relationships.

Westfield/Percassi

Westfield and Percassi are developing a site just to the east of Milan which will become the largest retail centre in Europe when it opens in 2017/8. iCube has undertaken a range of studies to support the planning and design of the centre.

Central to the work has been developing a demand and car park choice model to forecast the demands imposed on the external and site roads by day of week and 15-minute periods. The goal was to produce a balanced centre which, as far as possible, distributed footfall evenly around the site to make efficient use of infrastructure and to minimise congestion.

The centre is currently land-locked to the south by a substantial rail corridor which dictates reliance on a new highway running along the northern edge of the site. Furthermore, the presence of the dense urban area of Milan to the west, means that the strategic access demands are loaded disproportionately in one corridor. Therefore, considerable effort has gone into developing strategies to rebalance and manage demand.

As the strategic and infrastructure planning has settled, attention switched to forecasting the pedestrian footfall patterns from all sources entering the building by facade and level.

Westfield

iCube seconded staff to Westfield both prior to and during the London 2012 Games to plan for and manage Games pedestrian movements which would have a significant impact on Westfield Stratford City as the main routes to the Olympic Park from local transport facilities passed through the estate and crowds were interpersed with Westfield customers..

The Practice was responsible for reviewing LOCOG (the Organising Committee) and TfL proposals and developing alternative schemes for management of crowds on the estate. During the Games, iCube continued to work in the operational control hub monitoring actual pedestrian flows and forecasting demands 3-6 hours in the future using a spreadsheet model representing Olympic and Westfield flow patterns.

City of Westminster/TfL

The clients wished to develop a co-ordinated view of the development impacts arising from a host of proposals at and around Paddington. iCube was employed to produce a series of demand forecasts and develop a tool to assign the commuting demands to local stations and infrastructure which would underpin mitigation plans and S106 contributions for sites within the area.

PATS was first developed in 1997 (by iCube staff)and has subsequently been updated and refined a further three times to reflect changing development and transport parameters. The studies have assessed planning contributions attributable to different developments and established priorities for the use of development funds raised by PATS.

Westfield

The project - conducted in partnership with CACI - forecast the changing retail patterns in London with the arrival of Crossrail and other major rail improvements through to 2030 to assess the likely impact on Westfield's centres and devise appropriate strategies for the company

Using TRACC, the networks and services likely to emerge in the future were modelled to generate public transport journey times to Westfield and other centres. Alongside projected population growth and car ownership characteristics, CACI applied the scenarios in their gravity model of London's retail system.

This work forecast the change in retail volumes using each centre and informed business decisions on marketing and investment priorities in response to the delivery of rail improvements.

The graphic shows the current overlap in public transport catchment between Westfield London and Stratford City as well as the West End.

Westfield

The Street is the external mall within the Westfield Stratford City development. Despite the success of the scheme overall, The Street has under-performed expectations and Westfield wished to develop a package of measures to boost its role in the centre.

iCube's role was to develop forecasts of the impact on footfall in The Street from a range of factors and proposals. The work encompassed projecting the impact of the development of the Olympic Park and other sites - which are served to a great extent through The Street - on the footfall in the corridor, before assessing the effects of interventions such as introducing a canopy over The Street and a new anchor store.

To assess the potential effect of the canopy, the practice collated data on rainfall and wind conditions over the previous year and related this to the relative footfall using The Street compared to the remainder of the mall (see graphic). This showed that the partial enclosure of The Street would be likely to increase footfall by circa 5% compared to the baseline.

First Base

As part of iCube's work on the Silvertown project, the Practice developed a detailed set of forecasts for movement patterns and site occupation to not only underpin the transport assessment but also to inform the design of the site and its environs. The graphic illustrates the resultant projection for activity on a typical midweek day covering each hour of the day, the flow entering and exiting the site and the composition of people occupying the site.

The analysis looked at the density of occupation and the temporal profiles for each group of people using the site - such as residents, shoppers, office workers and so on - to build a picture of the usage of the site. For groups like residents, the analysis went further and considered travel patterns for nine different purposes to ensure that the concentration of activity in the peaks and the modal choices for these trips were both robust and supportable in engagement with the planning and transport authorities.

This form of assessment lent itself to detailed analysis of pedestrian demands at a disaggregate level and so was also used to develop a space syntax assessment of the site and its connections.

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